Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
