A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
