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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the prize. However, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest upset.

However the latest field is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising in unison. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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